Israele - Iran

[Andrea75]

Minister: Bushehr N. Power Plant Fully Operational in 2 Months

 

Iranian Energy Minister Majid Namjou said that the country's first nuclear power plant in the Southern port city of Bushehr will go into operation with maximum power generation capacity within next two months.

Speaking to reporters after a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, the minister said that "the final tests of the Bushehr nuclear power plant have been conducted and I think that this power plant will come into circuit in the next one or two months."

Late in May, Head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) Fereidoun Abbasi announced that Iran's first nuclear power plant will reach its full power generation capacity late autumn.

 

Iran and the nuclear threat will define President Obama’s second term

[Andrea75]

Scaramucce nel Golfo Persico

 

Iranian fighter jets fired on an unarmed U.S. drone in the Persian Gulf

 

Two Iranian Su-25 fighter jets fired on an unarmed U.S. Air Force Predator drone in the Persian Gulf on November 1, the Pentagon disclosed on Thursday.

The incident, reported first by CNN, raised fresh concerns within the Obama administration about Iranian military aggression in crucial Gulf oil shipping lanes.

The drone was on routine maritime surveillance in international airspace east of Kuwait, 16 miles off the coast of Iran, U.S. officials said. The Predator was not hit.

"Our aircraft was never in Iranian airspace. It was always flying in international air space. The recognized limit is 12 nautical miles off the coast and we never entered the 12 nautical mile limit," Pentagon Press Secretary George Little said in responding to questions from reporters after CNN reported the incident.

Little said the United States believed this was the first time an unmanned aircraft was shot at by the Iranians in international waters over the Gulf. In December of 2011, a U.S. surveillance drone crashed in eastern Iran. Iranians claimed to have shot it down, and created a toy model of the drone to celebrate its capture.

Little stopped short of calling the incident an act of war although the Pentagon was concerned.

Two U.S. officials explained the jets were part of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps force, which has been more confrontational than regular Iranian military forces.

At least two bursts of gunfire came from the Su-25s' cannons. The drone started to move away but the Iranian aircraft chased it, doing aerial loops around it before breaking away and returning to Iran.

The Obama administration did not disclose the incident before the presidential election, but three senior officials confirmed the details to CNN on Thursday. They declined to be identified because of sensitive intelligence matters surrounding the matter.

The drone's still and video cameras captured the incident showing two Su-25s approaching the Predator and firing onboard guns.

The Iranian pilots continued to fire shots that went beneath the Predator but were never successful in hitting it, according to the officials.

U.S. military intelligence analysts are still not sure if the Iranian pilots simply were unable to hit the drone due to lack of combat skill, or whether they deliberately were missing and had no intention of bringing it down.

But as one of the officials said, "it doesn't matter, they fired on us."

Little said the United States has to assume Iran was trying to bring down the Predator.

The United States protested the incident but had not heard back from Iran.

 

... conferma dal Pentagono Iranians Attacked U.S. Drone Over International Waters

 

WASHINGTON, Nov. 8, 2012 – A recent Iranian attack on a U.S. drone occurred over international waters, but the aircraft suffered no damage and returned safely to base, Pentagon Press Secretary George Little said today.

Speaking to Pentagon reporters, Little said the Iranian aircraft fired on the drone and followed it as it flew over the Arabian Gulf last week.

“I can confirm that on November 1, at approximately 4:50 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time, an unarmed, unmanned MQ-1 U.S. military aircraft conducting routine surveillance over the Arabian Gulf, was intercepted by an Iranian SU-25 Frog-foot aircraft and was fired upon with guns,” he said.

“The incident occurred over international waters, approximately 16 nautical miles off of the Iranian coastline,” Little said. “The MQ-1 was not hit, and returned to its base safely.”

Little provided further details regarding the Iranian attack.

“The aircraft, once it came under fire at approximately the 16 nautical mile range, moved further out,” he said. “The Iranian aircraft continued to pursue the MQ-1 for some period of time before letting it return to base.”

“We believe they fired at least twice and made at least two passes,” Little added.

The press secretary confirmed both Congress and the White House were notified of the incident, and the U.S. responded to Iran through the “Swiss protective powers.”

“The United States has communicated to the Iranians that we will continue to conduct surveillance flights over international waters, over the Arabian Gulf, consistent with longstanding practices and our commitment to the security of the region,” Little said.

Little emphasized the U.S. can respond using a “wide range of options -- from diplomatic to military -- to protect our military assets and our forces in the region, and will do so when necessary.”

“Our aircraft was never in Iranian airspace. It was always flying in international airspace,” he said. “The internationally recognized territorial limit is 12 nautical miles off the coast, and we never entered the 12 nautical-mile limit.”

Little said Defense Department officials believe this is the first time an unmanned aircraft has been shot at over international waters in the Arabian Gulf.

“There is absolutely no question that the aircraft fired on the U.S. military aircraft,” he said.

 

... una cartina Map: Where was the drone that Iran tried to shoot down?

 

The drone was likely somewhere along that red line. The blue circle indicates where the United States bases its Fifth Fleet.

 

... e l'opinione di Cenciotti Iranian combat planes tried to shoot down a U.S. Predator. A weird story. (che suggerisce di attendere qualche giorno per avere maggiori informazioni)

 

What’s weird in this story?

First of all, the type of platform used to intercept the drone. The Su-25 is not fighter jet. It is the Russian equivalent of the A-10. The Iranian Air Force does not operate any of such planes. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Aerospace Force (former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Air Force) has added seven Iraqi Air Force Su-25s that fled to Iran in January 1991, during Operation Desert Storm.

Although this is far from being confirmed, no more than 16 Su-25s (between former Iraqi and new ones) are believed to be based by Tehran at the base of Shiraz, in eastern Iran (not far from the Persian Gulf). How many of them are airworthy is still an open question. Some believe the lack of spare parts and pilot training has sensibly reduced the amount of flying hours available with the Su-25.

Surely, two were spotted flying at the beginning of 2012. Were those involved in the recent incident? Maybe there are a few more available, even if it must be noticed that, with all the aircraft in IRIAF (Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force) the Frogfoot is the less likely asset to be used to intercept a hostile aircraft. Especially on the eastern coast, where Iranian air defenses should be on a heightned alert status for a possible Israeli/US attack.

Second weird thing is that the “interceptors” were armed. If they were involved in a training mission and caught the drone almost by accident, they were most probably unarmed.

I don’t find much odd the fact that they missed their target. As said the Su-25 (provided this kind of plane was really involved in the incident) is a bomber. As such, its pilots does not train that much in air-to-air gunnery. Even if a flying Predator might appear as an easy target, don’t forget that you need a certain amount of training to shoot down another aircraft, even when you are flying on a hi-tech fighter.

Do you remember the Israeli F-16 that had to fire two air-to-air missiles at the drone that had violated the Israeli airspace last month?

Still, the Su-25 is not a fast jet and it maneuvers quite well at very low speed, hence attacking a slow mover should not have been a factor. On the other side, it’s unclear why the Iranians would not dispatch other higher performance fighters if they really wanted to down the drone. Did the Su-25s only fire some warning shots to the Predator?

Most probably, more details will emerge in the following days.

Modificato 9 Novembre 2012 da Andrea75

[Andrea75]

Pulizie in corso ?? UN’s nuclear watchdog head says apparent work to dismantle suspected Iran test site ongoing

 

The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog says apparent efforts by Iran to dismantle a suspected nuclear site are continuing ahead of a visit by agency officials next month.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has raised concerns about what appears to be months of work to scrub the Parchin military complex southeast of Tehran of possible traces of nuclear weapons-related work. It believes Iran may have run experiments at the site on triggering a nuclear explosion.

IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano said during a visit to neighboring Iraq on Sunday that activities to dismantle Parchin are ongoing, though he declined to give details.

Iran denies it is pursuing atomic weapons, a charge leveled by the West. It says its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes.

[Andrea75]

U.S. Navy Prepares for Extended Mine Force Presence in Arabian Gulf

 

The U.S. Navy is positioning its mine-hunting forces for an extended stay in the Arabian Gulf by bringing some extra ships home, relying more heavily on newly introduced technologies and adding two new crews to help man the ships.

 

This spring, four mine countermeasures ships (MCMs) were shipped to the gulf from San Diego, doubling the number of U.S. minesweepers in the region. The moves were a response to a request from U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) and strengthened 5th Fleet’s ability to react if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz.

 

But unlike the four MCMs permanently forward-deployed to the region, the movement of the four additional ships was termed a deployment. The ships left San Diego May 9, and arrived in Bahrain June 23.

 

Now, two ships might come home in the early part of next year, while the other two could remain for all of 2013.

 

“We think we’re going to bring two ships home in February,” Rear Adm. Frank Morneau, deputy director of expeditionary warfare at the Pentagon, said in a Nov. 9 interview.

 

The reduction won’t lessen minesweeping capability, he said.

[Andrea75]

Iran says arrests foreign-linked bomb plotters

 

ran's Intelligence Ministry has arrested people planning bomb attacks with the support of Western and Israeli spy agencies in the oil-producing province of Khuzestan, state television reported on Friday.

 

Khuzestan, in Iran's southwest, is home to a large population of ethnic Arab Iranians, also known as Ahwazis, who have long complained of economic deprivation and systematic discrimination by the authorities. The region has occasionally suffered violent action by militants.

 

Iran has in the past accused Western intelligence agencies and the Israeli Mossad of carrying out attacks against its nuclear scientists.

 

"In the last few days a number of terrorist elements connected to foreign intelligence services ... were identified and arrested along with a significant amount of explosives materials and items sent from a country in the Persian Gulf area," the Intelligence Ministry statement said, according to Iranian state television's website.

 

"These elements, led by Western-Zionist intelligence services, sought to commit other acts of sabotage, which were foiled."

 

The statement said the individuals, who it did not otherwise identify or give details on, had planned to blow up parts of Khuzestan's energy infrastructure.

[Andrea75]

Iran’s Fordo Nuclear Complex Reaches Capacity

 

Iran has finished installing all the critical equipment at a deep underground site where it is producing nuclear fuel that could quickly be converted to use in a nuclear weapon, international inspectors reported on Friday. But they said Iran has yet to ramp up production, leaving several months for President Obama and his allies to work on a diplomatic solution that could avoid a military confrontation.

The report, by the International Atomic Energy Agency, also said that satellite photographs show Iran has worked for months to alter another site that the agency has long suspected may have been used for weapons-related experiments. Inspectors have been barred, and the agency said it fears that the movement of earth and removal of equipment has been so widespread that its ability to “conduct effective verification will have been seriously undermined.”

The inspectors found that, as intelligence officials and diplomats reported several weeks ago, the deep underground site called Fordo, near the holy city of Qum, is virtually complete. It is filled with 2,784 centrifuges, the maximum number it was designed to hold. Of those, 644 were added since the agency’s August report. But only 696 of the centrifuges are actually enriching uranium, while another 696 are very close to that stage.

“They could double the rate of production at Fordo very quickly,” said a European diplomat who follows the agency’s work. “They could go at any time.”

After that, officials say, it would be only a few months before Iran had enough fuel to produce a weapon if it decided to do so. However, American intelligence officials are still sticking to their conclusion, which dates back to 2007, that Iran has not made a “political decision” to produce a weapon, but may want to keep the option open.

Cliff Kupchan, who follows the Iranian nuclear project for the Eurasia Group, wrote on Friday that Iran’s decision to make clear that it “is poised to increase significantly its production rate of medium-enriched uranium yet has refrained from doing so” suggests it is seeking some more leverage in the next round of diplomacy. The West, and the U.S., the Iranians may calculate, will be willing to pull back on sanctions in return for stopping Iran from coming that close to being able to produce even a single weapon.

 

 

U.N. inspectors report worrisome steps in Iran’s nuclear program

 

Iran has reached another milestone in its nuclear program, U.N. inspectors reported Friday, saying the country has completed work on an underground factory for making enriched uranium. Western officials fear that the heavily fortified facility could some day be used to make a nuclear bomb.

The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency also documented a sharp rise in Iran’s stockpile of a more purified form of enriched uranium that experts say can be converted relatively easily into fissile material for nuclear weapons.

...

IAEA officials chided Iran in the report for failing to take steps to ease international concerns about its nuclear program. The U.N. agency noted that Tehran still refuses to allow inspections of military facilities where the government is believed to have conducted nuclear-weapons research in the past.

“Iran is not providing the necessary cooperation,” the nuclear watchdog said in its report, prepared for an upcoming meeting of the IAEA’s 35-nation board of governors. Without further cooperation, it said, the agency “is unable to provide credible assurance . . . to conclude that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities.”

A key focus of the report was Iran’s Fordow uranium-enrichment plant near Qom, about 100 miles southwest of Tehran. In recent months, Iran’s engineers have made rapid progress at the formerly secret plant, installing thousands of fast-spinning gas centrifuge machines used to make enriched uranium. The plant was constructed inside a mountain to shield it from airstrikes, and Israeli officials have warned that the plant’s completion will make it harder for Western nations to stop Iran if it decides to build nuclear bombs.

Inspectors who visited the plant this month reported that all of the plant’s nearly 2,800 centrifuges have been installed. For unknown reasons, Iran has not begun feeding uranium hexafluoride gas into more than half of the machines, the report stated.

“It is not clear why Iran hasn’t started rolling with these new machines, but they haven’t,” said a European diplomat briefed on the IAEA’s findings. The official insisted on anonymity in discussing details of the briefings.

Despite the delay in starting up the new machines, Iran appeared to be making steady progress in expanding its stockpile of uranium enriched to 20 percent, a more concentrated product that can be readily converted to the highly enriched form used in nuclear bombs. In the past three months, Iran’s supply of this type of uranium increased by nearly half, U.N. inspectors found.

In the past, Iran has sought to ease concerns about its stockpile by converting some of its 20 percent uranium into a metal form that can’t easily be turned into weapons-grade material. For now, at least, that practice seems to have been halted, the IAEA found.

 

Iran Set to Double Nuclear Fuel Capability

 

 

Iran defends "normal procedures" at Bushehr nuclear plant

 

An Iranian diplomat said on Sunday Iran had unloaded fuel from its first atomic power plant as part of a normal technical procedure linked to transferring responsibility for the plant from Russian engineers.

 

Iran delays planned start-up of Arak nuclear reactor

 

Iran has postponed until 2014 the planned start-up of a research reactor which Western experts say could potentially offer the Islamic Republic a second route to produce material for a nuclear bomb, a U.N. report showed.

Tehran has continued to install cooling and moderator circuit piping in the heavy water plant near the town of Arak. Nuclear analysts say this type of reactor could yield plutonium for nuclear arms if the spent fuel is reprocessed, something Iran has said it has no intention of doing.

But the country has now delayed the planned timetable for bringing Arak on line by about half a year from the third quarter of 2013, according to the latest U.N. information in a confidential report submitted to member states late on Friday.

"Iran stated that the operation of the IR-40 reactor was now expected to commence in the first quarter of 2014," the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report said.

It gave no reason for the postponement, but Western experts have said a launch already next year always seemed unrealistic.

 

Envoy Urges Iran-IAEA Technical Talks Free from Political Provocations

 

Iran's Residing Representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency Ali Asqar Soltaniyeh said successful talks between Iran and the IAEA need an atmosphere free from political hues and cries. ...

Speaking to FNA on Sunday, Soltaniyeh stressed the necessity for a "calm atmosphere" for successful talks between the two sides, and stated, "The success of talks in Tehran in removing the ambiguities (about Iran nuclear program) would depend on a calm atmosphere free from political hues and cries."

Earlier, the IAEA Spokesperson, Gill Tudor, said that Iran and the UN nuclear watchdog agency have decided to hold a new meeting in Tehran next month, adding that both sides are determined to explore a new approach for resolving differences over Tehran's nuclear activities.

Elsewhere, Soltaniyeh pointed to the IAEA's seasonal report on Iran's nuclear program issued on Friday, and stressed that the new report once again proved "the peaceful nature of all Iranian nuclear activities, including its enrichment activities".

"And this has a very important message for the world," he added.

Washington and its Western allies accuse Iran of trying to develop nuclear weapons under the cover of a civilian nuclear program, while they have never presented any corroborative evidence to substantiate their allegations. Iran denies the charges and insists that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.

Tehran stresses that the country has always pursued a civilian path to provide power to the growing number of Iranian population, whose fossil fuel would eventually run dry.

Modificato 19 Novembre 2012 da Andrea75

[Andrea75]

Fill brought to Iran site IAEA wants to inspect: diplomats

 

Iran has been hauling dirt to a military site U.N. nuclear inspectors want to visit, Western diplomats said on Wednesday, saying the findings were based on satellite images and they reinforced suspicions of a clean-up.

They said the pictures, presented during a closed-door briefing for member states of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), suggested Iran was continuing to try to hide incriminating traces of any illicit nuclear-related activity.

The allegations come a few days after the IAEA said in a report on Iran that "extensive activities" undertaken at the Parchin site since early this year would seriously undermine its inquiry, if and when inspectors were allowed access.

Iran has so far denied the agency's request for a visit.

The U.N. agency believes Iran may have conducted explosives tests that could help develop nuclear weapons at Parchin and wants immediate access to investigate the facility. Iran denies this, saying Parchin is a conventional military complex.

The latest satellite image, dated November 7, showed what appeared to be piles of dirt, according to diplomats who attended the briefing by chief U.N. inspector Herman Nackaerts.

"They have been scraping the earth. Now they obviously want to put down new earth. There are piles of them that you can see," one diplomat said, adding a fence had also come down.

"We are wondering whether they are intending to bring down ... the buildings, we don't know yet," he added, referring to a structure believed to house a steel chamber for explosives tests, as well a nearby building.

Iran's mission to the IAEA was not available for comment.

The IAEA report, issued on Friday, listed activities observed at Parchin since February, including the removal of "considerable quantities" of earth at the location in question and its surrounding area, which it said covered 25 hectares (62 acres).

This had been followed by "further removal of earth to a greater depth ... and the depositing of new earth in its place."

[Andrea75]

Iran denies cessation of operation in Bushehr nuclear power plant: nuclear chief

 

Iran denied on Wednesday reports that the Islamic republic has temporarily halted the operation of Bushehr nuclear power plant, semi-official Fars news agency reported.

On Nov. 16, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in a report that Iran unloaded fuel from the reactor core of Bushehr power plant in October and transferred it to a spent fuel pond.

"Don't believe any of these (reports)," Fereidoon Abbasi, head of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), said on Wednesday. " The work (concerning the plant) is advancing and everything is all right," he stressed.

On Saturday, Iran's permanent representative to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, said the unload of the fuel from the core of the plant was related to the transfer of responsibility of the operation of the plant from the Russians to the Iranian experts.

In September, Igor Mezenin, the operation chief of the Bushehr nuclear plant's Russian contractor, said Iran would get full control of 1,000 MW Bushehr nuke plant at the end of 2012 from the Russian contractor.

The reactor of the plant's unit reached its full capacity on Aug. 31.

Construction of the Bushehr plant began in 1975 by several German companies. However, work halted when the United States imposed an embargo on hi-tech supplies to Iran after the 1979 revolution.

Russia signed a contract with Iran to complete the construction in 1998. The remaining construction was postponed several times due to mounting technical and financial challenges and pressure from Washington.

[Andrea75]

The November 2012 IAEA Report on Iran and Its Implications

 

The new quarterly report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Iran’s nuclear program, which is now in circulation, finds that Tehran has continued to install

more centrifuges for uranium enrichment at its underground complex at Fordow. The November 16 IAEA report says that Iran has installed an additional 644 centrifuges at Fordow

and 991 at Natanz, both of which are regularly inspected by the Agency.

However, the total number of operating centrifuges at Fordow (696) has not yet increased, according to the Agency. The IAEA report also notes that while Iran continues to

experiment with advanced and more efficient types of centrifuges, it is not yet using them for production-scale operations.

The IAEA also reports that Iran has continued enriching uranium to the 20% level at the previously reported rate and that its stockpile of 20% material has increased moderately—by

43 kg. According to the IAEA’s November report, Iran has produced 232 kg of 20% material, of which 96 kg was converted or slated for conversion to uranium oxide powder, ostensibly

for the production of fuel plates for its Tehran Research Reactor. This leaves a stockpile of 134.9 kg of 20% enriched uranium in hexafluoride form. In August, the IAEA reported that

Iran had produced 189.4 kg of 20% enriched uranium, of which 91 kg was stockpiled as hexafluoride.

HIGHLIGHTS

• Iran’s stockpile of 20% enriched material, if further enriched to weapons-grade, is still short of the amountnecessary for one nuclear weapon.

• Iran has completed installation of the centrifuges that its underground enrichment facility, Fordow, is designed to hold, but the number of operating centrifuges remains unchanged since the last IAEA report.

• The IAEA report confirms that Iran has not made significant progress on its advanced centrifuges, which are still not ready for full-scale use.

• Construction on the Arak heavy water reactor continues, but Iran pushed back the date that it expects to begin operations at the facility from the third quarter of 2013 to early 2014.

• The IAEA is still investigating possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear activities and has been unable to reach an agreement with Tehran on a framework for resolving the outstanding concerns.

• There is still time for a negotiated resolution to Iran’s controversial nuclear program, if the P5+1 and Iran both exercise greater flexibility and creativity and agree to address the most pressing concerns of each side.

[Andrea75]

Iran's nuclear stockpile grows but not yet in "danger zone"

 

An increase in Iran's higher-grade uranium stockpile is worrying but may arise from a bottleneck in making reactor fuel rather than a bid to quickly accumulate material that could be used for nuclear weapons, diplomats and experts say.

The issue of when and how fast Iran might be able to build an atomic bomb if it chose to do so is closely watched in the West because it could determine any decision by Israel to launch pre-emptive strikes against the Islamic Republic.

Tehran's move this year to use a big part of its most sensitive material - which could otherwise be turned into bomb-grade uranium - for civilian fuel purposes helped ease intense speculation of an imminent attack by the Jewish state.

But tension may soon flare again if Iran's holding were to rapidly approach an amount that would be enough for a weapon, either by stepping up output of higher-enriched uranium or by no longer using the material to produce reactor fuel, or both.

"The question is, at what point do they cross the critical point ... when we enter the danger zone?" one senior diplomatic source said. "Will they decide to voluntarily decide to stay clear of that point?"

 

 

Senate works on new package of Iran sanctions

 

New sanctions aimed at reducing global trade with Iran in the energy, shipping and metals sectors may soon be considered by the U.S. Senate as part of an annual defense policy bill, senators and aides said on Tuesday.

The sanctions legislation, which has not yet been unveiled, comes during a crowded calendar as the Senate races to deal with deficit reduction, the defense bill and other pressing issues by the end of the year.

The package would build on current U.S. sanctions, passed almost a year ago, that have slashed Iran's oil revenues. The goal is to pressure Tehran to stop efforts to enrich uranium to levels that could be used in weapons.

Tehran has said its nuclear program is strictly for civilian purposes.

[Andrea75]

Iran self-sufficient in defense sector: Navy cmdr.

 

Iran’s Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari says the country has reached self-sufficiency in the defense sector and can now meet its defense demands.

“Since the beginning of the Islamic Revolution, we have learned not to ask for help from other countries and stand on our own feet in meeting our demands,” Sayyari said on Wednesday.

“Thanks to the Islamic Revolution, Iran has acquired the know-how to build submarines. No one believed that we would reach a point where we would build destroyers capable of carrying helicopters and missiles in the Sea of Oman and oceans… because it’s a very difficult task to build destroyers and submarines,” he added.

He went on to say that the Iranian Defense Ministry is now capable of meeting the defense demands of the country, especially for the Navy.

Sayyari made the remarks in a ceremony to launch two upgraded versions of the indigenously-built Ghadir-class light submarine and two overhauled hovercrafts.

The Ghadir submarine was first unveiled in 2007. The 120-ton vessel has excellent shallow-depth performance, and can carry out long-term coastal missions.

Along with submarines, Iran also unveiled the main structure of the Sina 7 missile-launching frigate.

In recent years, Iran has made great achievements in the defense sector and attained self-sufficiency in essential military equipment and systems.

The Islamic Republic has so far launched different classes of advanced submarines including Fateh, Ghadir, Qaem and Nahang.

Iran has repeatedly assured other nations, especially its neighbors, that its military might poses no threat to other countries, insisting that its defense doctrine is based on deterrence.

 

 

Iran shows new submarines and warships, touts self-sufficiency in defense

 

Iran’s state television has posted a short video that shows what the Iranians say are “indigenously built” warship and submarines. The two Ghadir class submarines, which can fire missiles and torpedoes at the same time, and the Sina-7 warship were launched at Bandar Abbas, near the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Iranian submarines unveiled near Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.

[Simone]

E' ben vero che gli impianti sotterranei, scavati anche con la consulenza di tecnici europei (è noto che i nostri edifici sono per scuola di pensiero più solidi di quelli americani) sono difficilmente distruggibili da munizioni convenzionali,però anche essi hanno degli ingressi il cui crollo può renderli inutilizzabili ,almeno per qualche tempo. Una preoccupazione è che, in caso di incursioni aeree anche isolate, l'Iran potrebbe reagire invadendo l'Iraq e mettendo a repentaglio i tanti militari americani che sono alloggiati in campi e non in bunker, con poche trincee ed ancor meno aerei in zona per copertura

[Andrea75]

segnalo questo paper Sanctions, Military Strikes, and Other Potential Actions Against Iran, le opzioni sul tavolo del Presidente USA con i relativi costi stimati

 

A great deal of effort has been devoted to analyzing Iran’s nuclear program and identifying possible actions the United States might take to thwart what many believe is a project designed to build nuclear weapons. In October 2012, amid concerns that surprisingly little research addressed the potential broad outcomes of possible U.S.-led actions against Iran, researchers at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) assembled nine renowned subject matter experts (SMEs) to investigate one underexplored question that looms large: What are the potential effects on the global economy of U.S. actions against Iran? Collectively representing expertise in national security, economics, energy markets, and finance, the SMEs gathered for a one-day elicitation workshop to consider the global economic impacts of six hypothetical scenarios involving U.S.-led actions.

The report does not contain specific policy advice. Rather, it provides a starting point for discussion and further analyses relating to one category of potential outcomes – the global economic impact – associated with the policy choices before U.S. decision makers today. It is important to note that the dollar figures assigned to the potential outcomes of the six scenarios are not attributed to any of the individual subject matter experts.

Expert elicitation is a formal process of collecting and synthesizing opinions from those who are uniquely qualified to provide insight about how to approach complex problems. It is particularly useful for parameterization and quantifying uncertainty surrounding rare or unpredictable occurrences. In the case of the United States and Iran, the suitability of an elicitation was obvious due to the methodology’s ability to explore issues characterized by high levels of uncertainty and change. Additionally, given the historically unique challenge at hand, an elicitation’s usefulness comes from its ability to discern and define salient factors in the absence of empirical data provided by past experience. Collectively, the nine subject matter experts comprised a bipartisan and interdisciplinary group uniquely qualified to explore and assess the overarching question guiding the elicitation.

Despite the challenges facing a study of such broad scope and the preliminary nature of findings based on subjective judgments, the research team believes that the approach taken accounts for a variety of constraints and that the findings represent useful starting points for further study and dialogue. The intent in releasing the report’s initial findings is to broaden the scope of analysis beyond issues immediately affecting Iran and its nuclear infrastructure, or a narrow economic focus on oil prices.

The elicitation revealed the rough effects of U.S. action against Iran on the global economy–measured only in the first three months of actualization – to range from a net global economic benefit of approximately $60 billion on one end of the scale and total losses of $1.7 trillion to the world economy on the other end.

The elicitation’s six hypothetical scenarios involve U.S.-led actions taken with regard to Iran, along with the elicitation-derived average mid-point of cost for each to the global economy follow. Note that Scenario 6 is a de-escalatory stratagem and its three-month effects on the global economy are a net benefit as opposed to a cost. Note also that these costs represent estimates of net impacts on the global economy and average out the gains and losses to individual national economies. Extreme caution should thus be exercised in attempting to extrapolate these findings to particular countries or sectors.

1. Increasing Pressure: The United States opts to impose a new round of sanctions that penalize any foreign banks – public and private – that conduct transactions with any business with the Central Bank of Iran.

- Average estimated global economic costs: Approximately US$64 billion.

2. Isolation and Persian Gulf Blockade: Among other actions, the United States moves to curtail any exports of refined oil products, natural gas, energy equipment, and services from Iran. Investments in Iran’s energy sector are banned worldwide.

- Average estimated global economic costs: Approximately US$325 billion.

3. Surgical Strikes: The U.S. leads a limited air and Special Forces campaign of “surgical strikes” on nuclear facilities and military installations that are of acute concern.

- Average estimated global economic costs: Approximately US$713 billion.

4. Comprehensive Bombing Campaign: The United States leads an ambitious air campaian that targets not only the nuclear facilities of concern but also seeks to limit Iran’s ability to retaliate by targeting its other military assets.

- Average estimated global economic costs: Approximately US$1.2 trillion.

5. Full-Scale Invasion: The United States resolves to invade, occupy, and disarm Iran.

- Average estimated global economic costs: Approximately US$1.7 trillion.

6. De-Escalation: The president experiments with a new approach to resolving the standoff with Iran by unilaterally taking steps to show that the United States is willing to make

concessions.

- Average estimated global economic benefit: Approximately US$60 billion.

The following report details the elicitation process and the research team’s finding. Mindful that a multitude of difficult questions surround the issue of Iran’s nuclear program, the report simply seeks to provide a starting point for discussion about one category of potential outcomes – the global economic impact – associated with the policy choices before U.S. decision makers today.

[Andrea75]

U.S. Raises Monitoring of Iranian Reactor

 

The U.S. has significantly stepped up spying operations on Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor over the past two months, American officials said, driven by heightened concerns about the security of weapons-grade plutonium after Tehran unexpectedly discharged fuel rods from the facility in October.

The increased U.S. surveillance of Bushehr, on Iran's southwestern coast, has been conducted in part with the Pentagon's fleet of drones operating over the Persian Gulf. The effort resulted in the interception of visual images and audio communications coming from the reactor complex, these officials said.

Tehran suggested an American drone was spying on Bushehr on Nov. 1 when it sent Iranian fighter jets to pursue the unmanned craft, firing at it but missing. The drone in question was conducting surveillance that day, but not on Bushehr, U.S. officials said.

U.S. officials stepped up surveillance after becoming alarmed over activities at Bushehr, especially the removal of fuel rods from the plant in October, just two months after it became fully operational, officials said. Nuclear experts said they are more concerned about safety at the reactor, for now, than about the prospect that Tehran will use the facility to develop atomic weapons.

Tehran formally protested the Pentagon's spying activities in a Nov. 19 letter to United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, according to a copy seen by The Wall Street Journal. The complaint charged that the U.S. has repeatedly violated Iranian airspace with its drone flights. But U.S. officials maintain that surveillance is conducted off the country's shoreline, in line with international law.

The extent of the U.S. surveillance activity underscores the limits of U.S. knowledge about Iran and its military and scientific bureaucracy, and points to anxious efforts by Washington to increase its understanding as an international confrontation looms over Tehran's nuclear program.

Officials wouldn't detail the type of surveillance under way at Bushehr, but drones are known to be capable of intercepting cellphone calls, electronic communications and other signals.

[Andrea75]

Breaking news: notizie dalla stampa non ancora confermate ufficialmente

 

Iran captures U.S. drone over its airspace: media

 

Iran captured a United States drone that was flying in the country's airspace, its media reported on Tuesday.

The ScanEagle drone was gathering information over Gulf waters and had entered Iranian airspace when it was captured by the naval unit of the Revolutionary Guards force, the Fars news agency reported, without giving details.

Last month the U.S. said Iranian warplanes shot at a U.S. surveillance drone flying in international airspace. Iran said the aircraft had entered its airspace.

The ScanEagle is manufactured by Boeing Co. According to the firm's website, the drone is four feet long and has a 10-foot (three-meter) wingspan.

 

Iran 'captures' US drone over Gulf waters

 

Iran captures US drone, December 2012

[TT-1 Pinto]

Lo "ScanEagle" di cui si parla negli articoli postati da Andrea75 ....

 

[Andrea75]

... notizie dall'Iran Iran has captured another U.S. spy drone. Once again with minimal damage.

 

On Dec. 5, Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy Commander Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi announced that Iran is in possession of Scan Eagle drone that entered the Iranian airspace over the Persian Gulf.

Indeed, IRGC released footage of the captured drone that, just like the RQ-170, seems to be in quite good shape.

...

Referring to the captured ScanEagle drone, Brigadier General Amirali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Aerospace Division of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), said that the drone was hijacked by Iranian forces as it was flying an ISR (Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance) mission around Kharg Island, in southern Iran.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGULtedeyJ0&feature=player_detailpage

 

 

... replica USA U.S. Navy says has not lost drone over Gulf

 

No U.S. drone has been lost in the Gulf recently, a U.S. Navy spokesman said after Iran said on Tuesday it had captured a U.S. intelligence-gathering drone in its airspace in the last few days.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said a ScanEagle drone was gathering information over the Gulf and had entered Iranian airspace when it was "captured".

"The U.S. Navy has fully accounted for all unmanned air vehicles (UAV) operating in the Middle East region. Our operations in the Gulf are confined to internationally recognized water and air space," a spokesman for U.S. Naval Forces Central Command in Bahrain said.

"We have no record that we have lost any ScanEagles recently."

[Andrea75]

US 5th Fleet has not lost any drones: spokesman

 

A spokesman for the US Fifth Fleet based in the Gulf said Tuesday the American navy has not lost any of its drones, shortly after Iran claimed it captured a small unmanned US spy plane over Gulf waters.

"All our active unmanned aerial vehicles working here have been accounted for," US 5th spokesman Commander Jason Salata told AFP.

"Nothing lost recently, in months," in the area of operation for the Fifth fleet, which stretches from the Gulf to the Horn of Africa, he said.

Salata said all of the Fifth Fleet's operations in the Gulf "are in compliance with international law," implying that any flights conducted were outside of Iranian airspace.

Earlier Tuesday, Iran claimed to have captured a ScanEagle drone, a small unamanned surveillance aircraft often used by the US Navy.

It said its Revolutionary Guards' naval arm caught the drone in Iranian airspace over Gulf waters, but gave no details how the vehicle was captured, nor exactly where or when.

 

 

No evidence that Iran's drone claim is true: White House

 

The United States has no evidence that Iranian claims that it captured a U.S. drone are accurate, the White House said on Tuesday.

"We have no evidence that the Iranian claims are true," White House spokesman Jay Carney said in response to a question at a briefing.

A Navy spokesman said it had fully accounted for all unmanned aircraft operating in the Middle East region.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said a ScanEagle drone was gathering information over the Gulf and had entered Iranian airspace when it was "captured".

[Andrea75]

Iran says extracts data from U.S. spy drone

 

Iran has obtained data from a U.S. intelligence drone that shows it was spying on the country's military sites and oil terminals, Iranian media reported its armed forces as saying on Wednesday.

Iran announced on Tuesday that it had captured a ScanEagle drone belonging to the United States, but Washington said there was no evidence to support the assertion.

The incident has underscored tensions in the Gulf as Iran and the United States draw attention to their military capabilities in the vital oil exporting region in a standoff over Iran's disputed nuclear program.

"We have fully extracted the drone's information," Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement on Wednesday, according to Iran's English-language Press TV.

The drone was gathering military information and spying on the transfer of oil from Iran's petroleum terminals, the IRGC statement said, according to Press TV. Iran's main export terminal is at Kharg Island.

The U.S. government has focused on blocking Iran's oil exports through sanctions to persuade Iran to give up its disputed nuclear program, which the U.S. and its allies believe is aimed at developing a bomb, something Iran denies.

 

 

Iran Tells U.S. To ‘Recount’ Drones

 

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are telling the United States to “recount” the drones in its fleet as they insist that — despite U.S. denials — they captured a small U.S. unmanned spy plane over Gulf waters, Iranian media said Dec. 5.

“Its capture is not an issue the Americans can easily refute,” Guards spokesman Brig. Gen. Ramezan Sharif was quoted as saying.

“I advise the American commanders to recount their drones accurately,” he said.

The Guards on Dec. 4 claimed to have recently captured a ScanEagle drone, a low-cost, short-range unmanned aircraft made by Boeing that measures 1.4 meters (4.5 feet) long with a wingspan of three meters (10 feet).

They said the craft was seized in Iranian airspace but gave no details about how it was captured intact, nor where or when. State television showed images of what it said was the drone: a grey, unmarked vehicle suspended in a hangar.

A spokesman for the U.S. 5th Fleet based in the Gulf said none of its drones was missing, and a White House spokesman said there is “no evidence” the Iranian claim is true.

Modificato 5 Dicembre 2012 da Andrea75

[Andrea75]

Iranian nuclear bomb would trigger arms race: Iran ex-official

 

A nuclear-armed Iran would cause a regional arms race and make Tehran more isolated and vulnerable, according to a former Iranian negotiator who argues that the Islamic state is not seeking to build nuclear bombs.

Israel and the United States suspect Iran is developing a nuclear arms capability and have not ruled out military action to prevent it from obtaining such weapons of mass destruction.

Iran says it is only seeking nuclear energy. But its refusal to suspend atomic activity which can have both civilian and military applications, and its lack of openness with the U.N. nuclear agency, have drawn tough Western punitive measures.

Former nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian, now a visiting scholar at Princeton University in the United States, said Iran recognizes that if it were to become a nuclear weapons state Russia and China would join the United States and "implement devastating sanctions that would paralyze the Iranian economy."

Moscow and Beijing have backed a series of U.N. Security Council sanctions resolutions against Iran since 2006. But they have criticized tougher unilateral steps by Washington and the European Union targeting Tehran's vital oil exports.

"Based on Iranian assessments, the possession of nuclear weapons would provide only a short-term regional advantage that would turn into a longer-term vulnerability," Mousavian wrote in the National Interest, a foreign policy journal.

"It would trigger a regional nuclear arms race, bringing Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia into the fold sooner or later," Mousavian, added.

Mousavian held his post before conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took over from his reformist predecessor Mohammad Khatami in 2005.

Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, tweeting Mousavian's article, said "these points of view by a very well informed person are worth noting". Sweden is a member of the 27-nation EU, which has ratcheted up the sanctions pressure on Tehran.

Most Iranian politicians believe that having nuclear weapons would be an obstacle for Tehran's access to technological cooperation with developed countries, Mousavian said in the article headlined "Ten Reasons Iran Doesn't Want the Bomb".

"They do not want to see Iran come under the kind of extreme international isolation levied against North Korea," he said.

The allegation that Iran could use nuclear weapons, if it acquired them, against the United States or Israel "makes no rational sense," Mousavian said.

"Any provocation by Iran against two states that possess thousands and hundreds of nuclear weapons respectively would result in Iran's total annihilation," Mousavian said.

Israel is widely believed to have the Middle East's only atomic arsenal but neither confirms nor denies this under a "strategic ambiguity" policy to deter Arab and Iranian foes.

[Andrea75]

Contatti tra Iran e Corea del Nord: Iran–North Korea: cooperation in nuclear missiles? (segnalato anche nel topic 'Corea del Nord')

 

In North-West of North Korea the installation of all of the three stages of the long-range rocket was completed at the launch platform of the firing ground. A source in the South Korean government announced that news to the journalists today. Pyongyang has earlier announced that it plans to put into orbit a satellite. However, the South Korean news agency Yonhap reminds its audience that many countries are sure that North Korea is really planning to test it intercontinental ballistic missile able to carry a nuclear warhead. Practically simultaneously the Japanese news agency Kyodo announced that Iran sent a group of military specialists to North Korea for a joint testing of the new ballistic missiles.

The Moscow bureau of the Japanese news agency swore that the information about the visit of the Iranian military specialists to DPRK had been received from reliable diplomatic sources. Many experts believe that the rocket testing in DPRK are in fact secret testing of ballistic technologies, which is prohibited to North Korea by a special UN Security Council resolution.

It is possible that the visit of the Iranian missile specialists is related to that alleged launch. The Iranian military engineers visited DPRK during the unsuccessful launch of the Unha-3 rocket last April. And now in December the Iranians will once again witness the process of preparation for the launch of the same rocket model.

On September 1 this year in Teheran Iran and DPRK signed a treaty on the scientific and technical cooperation. There is no information about the specific directions of that cooperation. But the history of the relations between Pyongyang and Teheran in such sensitive areas of «science and technology» as rocket construction and nuclear studies gives some food for thought.

The Soviet rocket Skad with which the DPRK Army is equipped as well as its North Korean “children” and “grandchildren” served as the springboard for the development of the Iranian rocket technologies and rocket construction as a whole. According to general estimates, in 1991-94 Iran received about 300 Skad rockets of B and C versions from DPRK. And in 1997 Iran launched its own production of a modification of that rocket under the name “Shahab-1” (range of 300 km) and “Shahab-2” (range of 500 km) with the equipment from North Korea. The new rocket “Shahab-3” with the range of 1800 km was based on the North Korean “Nodong-1” rocket. Experts believe that those rockets were designed in DPRK with the financial assistance from Iran. Also, in 2009 it was announced that a group of Iranian experts was sent to North Korea to work on the rocket of the “Taepodong -2” class with the range of 4 000 km.

A tight cooperation between Teheran and Pyongyang is not limited to rocket construction. Iranian nuclear specialists were present at all nuclear tests conducted by North Korea beginning with year 2006.

The following fact is both interesting and demonstrative. The North Korean nuclear program is based on the Plutonium variant, while the Iranian nuclear program is based on Uranium. Naturally, the North Korean testing was based on the Plutonium variant. And suddenly in 2010 according to the reports of the German Die Welt newspaper that referred to a US intelligence source DPRK conducted tests based on the enriched uranium that the Iranian nuclear program is based on. If that report reflects the reality, it means that the Iranian-North Korean cooperation has reached unusual heights. It is worth mentioning that North Korea has already been blamed for helping other countries in the area f nuclear research.

Here is the opinion of Vladimir Yevseev, a military expert and director of the Russian center of social and political studies:

"Iran and North Korea have a lot in common. Both countries are under international sanction due to ignoring the requirements of the UN and IAEA in the nuclear and rocket construction areas. North Korea has moved far in rockets and in nuclear studies. And Iran has prepared sufficiently qualified personnel and has created a good technological base including with the help of the North Korean experience. Especially given the fact that Iran due to its oil revenues has significant financial capabilities (even despite the sanctions), which are limited in North Korea's case. That is why these two countries that have difficulties in dealing with the rest of the world are very much interested in each other."

During the September visit of the North Korean delegation to Teheran Iranian top leader ayatollah Khamenei announced that «both countries must reach the goals they pose to themselves despite the pressure and the sanctions from the enemy forces». What exactly goals did he mean? – this question is now bothering many people. And the upcoming attempt to launch the North Korean rocket only attracts additional attention to that subject.

[Andrea75]

Progress seen in Iran-IAEA talks, new meeting in January: source

 

Some progress is believed to have been made in Thursday's talks between the U.N. nuclear agency and Iran in Tehran, a diplomatic source said on Friday.

 

The source, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the discussions, said a new meeting between Iran and the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was expected to take place in mid-January.

 

The source gave no further details. There was no indication that the IAEA had gained access to the Parchin military site as requested. The IAEA team was expected back in Vienna, where the IAEA is based, on Friday morning.

 

The comments were in line with those made by Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, to Iranian media after the one-day meeting in Tehran. Iranian media said a new meeting would take place in the capital on January 16.

 

The IAEA wants an agreement that would enable it to resume a long-stalled investigation into suspected atom bomb research in the Islamic state.

 

Iran, one of the world's largest oil producers, denies Western allegations it is seeking to develop the means and technologies needed to assemble nuclear weapons. Its economy is struggling with the burden of increasingly tough Western sanctions.

[Andrea75]

Iran defiant on enrichment ahead of possible nuclear talks

 

Iran will not stop higher-grade enrichment of uranium in response to external demands, Tehran's top nuclear official was quoted as saying on Tuesday, signaling a tough bargaining stance ahead of planned new talks with world powers.

Western powers want Iran to halt enrichment of uranium to a fissile concentration of 20 percent as it represents a significant step closer to the level that would be required to make nuclear bombs. Iran says it needs uranium refined to 20 percent to run its medical research reactor in Tehran.

Israel has threatened air strikes on Iran if its nuclear work is not curbed through diplomacy or sanctions, raising the specter of a Middle East war damaging to the global economy.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran will not suspend 20 percent uranium enrichment because of the demands of others," said Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, according to the Iranian Students' News Agency (ISNA). "The Islamic Republic of Iran will produce 20 percent enriched uranium to meet its needs and for however long it is required."

He did not specify what he meant by "needs". Western diplomats say Iran already has made sufficient amounts to fuel its Tehran Research Reactor for several years. Abbasi-Davani has in the past said Iran plans to build another research reactor.

"Twenty percent enrichment is the right of the Iranian nation for use in the Tehran reactor and it will defend this right with authority," Abbasi-Davani said.

The European Union quickly responded to his comments, saying Iran must come to grips with increasing international disquiet over the ultimate purpose of its uranium enrichment program to resolve the protracted dispute.

"Iran has to address the immediate key concern, which is the issue of 20 percent enrichment, by taking an initial comprehensive confidence-building step in this area, thereby creating space for more diplomacy and negotiations," the spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said.

 

Mooted IAEA-Iran 'deal' just the beginning: analysts

 

The UN atomic agency, after a year of false starts, finally expects to sign a long-elusive deal with Iran on January 16, but that will be the easy part, experts say.

Implementing the accord will be a lengthy and fragile process that will only partially resolve a decade-long standoff over Iran's nuclear programme and help to silence Israeli "drums of war".

Implementing the accord between the IAEA and Iran "will take years", one Vienna diplomat said, adding: "It's not going to be solved overnight."

...

The IAEA says it wants Iran to allow it to visit sites, talk to officials and examine documents related to activities "related to the development of a nuclear explosive device" -- mostly in the past but possibly still ongoing.

The IAEA, in a November 2011 report, cited "overall, credible" evidence indicating that such activities took place until 2003, and possibly since.

They included experiments with high explosives, tests with surrogate nuclear materials to similate a nuclear explosion, modelling and engineering studies on ballistic missile payloads and a "green salt project" to enrich uranium covertly.

But questions persist over the sources of the information.

The IAEA said its sources included a "foreign expert" -- thought to be a former Soviet nuclear scientist who worked in Iran -- in addition to satellite images, open-source documents and the nuclear trafficking network of Pakistan's Abdul Qadeer Khan -- as well as information from Iran itself.

But the bulk came from foreign intelligence services, including some 1,000 pages of documents known as the "alleged studies" from a so-called "laptop of death" reportedly obtained by the CIA in 2004 that several observers have thrown into doubt.

Iran has denounced the IAEA's alleged evidence as either forgeries provided by its "enemies" or as non-nuclear -- therefore none of the IAEA's business. It also complains that the IAEA refuses even to show it some of the material.

 

Modificato 18 Dicembre 2012 da Andrea75

[Andrea75]

Israel maintains military assets in Eritrea to spy on Iran

 

Israel has set up military bases in Eritrea to monitor Iran and other hostile activities in the Red Sea, Stratfor Global Intelligence reported Wednesday.

The U.S.-based strategy consultancy firm quoted “diplomatic sources” as saying that the Israeli military presence is comprised of docks and small naval units in the Dahlak Archipelago and Massawa, and a listening post on Mt. Amba Sawara.

“Israel’s presence in Eritrea is very focused and precise, involving intelligence gathering in the Red Sea and monitoring Iran’s activities,” Stratfor said.

According to the report, the East African nation has become an arena of operations for both Israel and Iran, with both vying to bolster their influence in the Horn of Africa.

The Israeli operations in the area are believed to mainly focus on tracking Iranian arms smuggling to militants in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. Ships loaded with rockets and other munitions travel through the Red Sea to Sudan and Egypt, from where the cargo is then transferred via land routes to Gaza or placed on ships bound for Syria and Lebanon.

The Israel Air Force has reportedly attacked arms convoys in Sudan several times in the past, and is widely credited with the October bombing of the Yarmouk munitions plant near the Sudanese capital of Khartoum where Iran had presumably planned to set up a workshop for manufacturing long-range missiles.

Though Israel kept mum on the affair, an Israeli official told The Sunday Times last month that Iran has built a “strategic arm” in Gaza.

Regardless of the ceasefire agreement (with Hamas), we will attack and destroy any shipment of arms to Gaza,” he said.

According to Stratfor, in addition to Israel, Eritrea accommodates Iranian military operations “relevant to Tehran’s larger goal of controlling the Bab el-Mandab Strait and the water route to the Suez Canal.”

“In exchange for resources, possibly including modest amounts of cash and weapons, Eritrea has exhibited a willingness to become a base of support for Middle Eastern powers,” the report analyzes Asmara’s decision to nurture relations with the two rival nations.

It said Eritrea seeks to befriend Israel for “numerous security and political reasons,” such as Israel’s “close ties with Washington… and to acquire better air defense capabilities to defend against a possible attack from Ethiopia,” as well as ” balancing its controversial relationship with Tehran.”

Eritrea is not the only base for Israeli military operations abroad.

Earlier this month, The Sunday Times reported that numerous reports over the past year have claimed that Israel is maintaining a military presence in Azerbaijan, where it deploys unmanned Predator drones to preemptively strike Iranian missile sites in the event of a war.

According to other reports, Israel has purchased an abandoned airfield in the country from which it could launch a strike on Tehran’s nuclear facilities.

[Andrea75]

... esercitazioni militari dell'Iran http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/28/us-iran-military-drill-idUSBRE8BR03A20121228

 

 

Iran started on Friday six days of naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz, the official IRNA news agency reported, maneuvers aimed at showcasing its military capabilities in what is a vital oil and gas shipping route.

Naval commander Habibollah Sayyari said the "Velayat 91" drills would last until Wednesday across an area of about 1 million square kilometers in the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and northern parts of the Indian Ocean, IRNA said.

Sayyari said the goal of the maneuvers were to show "the armed forces' military capabilities" in defending Iran's borders as well as sending a message of peace and friendship to neighboring countries.

Iranian officials have often said Iran could block the strait - through which 40 percent of the world's sea-borne oil exports pass - if it came under military attack over its disputed nuclear program.

Iran held a similar 10-day drill last December and sent a submarine and a destroyer into the Gulf four months ago just as U.S. and allied navies were conducting exercises in the same waters to practice keeping oil shipping lanes open.

Sayyari was quoted as saying on Tuesday that the new drill would test the navy's missile systems, combat ships, submarines and patrol and reconnaissance methods.

A heavy Western naval presence in the Gulf is meant to deter any attempt to block the waterway.