Israele - Iran

[Andrea75]

Obama order implements Iran sanctions approved by Congress

 

Iran Closer to Weapons-Grade Fuel, Experts Find

 

Iran has advanced its nuclear program to where it will be able to produce weapons-grade fuel in two to four months, nuclear experts and former United Nations inspectors said.

... Iran denies it is pursuing atomic weapons and says its nuclear work is solely for civilian purposes. U.S. officials said they believe Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has yet to make the political decision to acquire a nuclear bomb.

[Andrea75]

U.S and Israel plan “limited surgical strikes” on Iranian enrichment facilities before presidential elections

 

Questo articolo riprende una segnalzione del 9 ottobre (eccola A truly credible military threat to Iran.

 

Vengono segnalati anche dei rumors che danno per imminiente l'attacco: Israel attack on Iran nuclear program: 2012's October surprise?

 

 

Segnalo inoltre alcuni articoli che affermano: un Iran nucleare causerebbe tensioni sul prezzo del petrolio

 

The Price of Inaction: An Analysis of Energy and Economic Effects of a Nuclear Iran e Consequences Could Include Skyrocketing Energy Costs, Higher Unemployment and Inflation for U.S. Economy

 

A Nuclear-Armed Iran’s Impact on Oil Prices

Modificato 11 Ottobre 2012 da Andrea75

[Andrea75]

Israel's credibility problem on Iran

 

 

The pattern is clear: As Iran has crossed each red line, Israel has retreated to the next and, in effect, hit the repeat button. From conversion of uranium, to production of low-enriched uranium (less than 5 percent) that can be used as fuel for civilian power plants, to a stockpile of low-enriched uranium sufficient (after further enrichment) to make one nuclear bomb, to a stockpile sufficient for half a dozen bombs, to enrichment beyond 5 percent to 20 percent medium-enriched uranium, to operation of centrifuges enriching to 20 percent at the deep underground facility at Fordow, to achievement of a undefined "nuclear weapons capability," Israel's warnings have grown louder, but with no more effect.

...

If Israel, the United States, and the world are to be spared the consequences of a nuclear-armed Iran, all parties must focus now on what specific actions they can take to stop Iran short of a nuclear bomb. While, as Foreign Policy's David Rothkopf suggests, a credible threat of military action is part of the equation required for success, equally important are the pressures that Iran is feeling from sanctions that are now biting. What remains missing from this equation are terms for halting Iran's nuclear progress that any Iranian government could plausibly accept. Immediately after the U.S. election, that should become the intense focus of the United States, Israel, and the international community.

[Andrea75]

U.S. Suspects Iran Was Behind a Wave of Cyberattacks

 

Iran’s foreign ministry says country ready for flexibility at nuclear talks

 

EU plans to introduce new sanctions against Iran

[Andrea75]

Opening Pandora's box: Hezbollah in Israels-Iran thinking

 

Hezbollah, through direct strikes or terrorism, could complicate Israel's decision to attack Iran and spark an even greater regional crisis.

...

Indeed, Hezbollah packs a formidable punch. According to IDF Deputy Chief of Staff Yair Naveh, Hezbollah today has at least 60,000 rockets and missiles in its arsenal, or about ten times the number it had during the 34-day war in 2006. While the organization had few rockets that were capable of hitting Tel Aviv during that conflict, today it is said to have several thousands in its arsenal capable of doing so. In addition to the short- and medium-range rockets, Western intelligence assesses that Hezbollah has acquired a Syrian version of the Iranian Fateh-110 surface-to-surface missile, with a range of 200-300km, and may have received Russian-made SA-8 tactical air-defense systems. Hezbollah is also suspected of possessing a number of Chinese systems that were reverse-engineered by Iran or Syria, including the Raad anti-ship missile, the Misagh-2 MANPAD, and the B302 rocket, a Syrian version of the Chinese WS-1 multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS). Other rockets in Hezbollah's arsenal include the Iranian Fajr-3 (42km), Fajr-5 (~70km), and the Zalzel I/II(125/210km). In recent years, Hezbollah has placed medium- and long-range rockets deeper inside Lebanon and further away from the border with Israel. According to Daniel Byman of the Brookings Institution, many of those are concealed in homes. Such an arsenal, added to geographical proximity, has led some Israeli security officials to argue that an attack by Hezbollah would be more dangerous than Iranian retaliation following a preemptive strike against Tehran’s nuclear facilities.

[Andrea75]

Iran Launches Submarine And Destroyer Into Gulf During US Naval Exercises

 

U.N. nuclear chief rejects Iran "saboteurs" accusation

 

Time to test Iran

 

EU-Iran: too early for optimism

 

Dubai fueled by cheap Iran oil as U.S. steps up pressure

Modificato 18 Ottobre 2012 da Andrea75

[Andrea75]

Russia says November Iran nuclear talks 'realistic'

 

Iranians react to EU sanctions

 

Don't Go Baghdad on Tehran

 

The West's approach to Iran today mirrors the way it handled Iraq. Then, as now, the emphasis is on force, pressure, and uncovering evidence of an ongoing weapons program. However, the stakes are different in Iran. Already, continued pressure and isolation are making Iran less willing to cooperate. Following failed talks earlier this year, Iran has not been willing to engage in high-level negotiations. The head of the IAEA now expresses hope that Iran will return to the negotiating table. However, Iranian officials have delayed setting a new date for talks. They believe that they are facing a covert war. Recently, Iran has voiced concerns that IAEA inspectors pass intelligence information from sensitive military sites to their governments. With escalating pressure and open debate in Israel and the United States about an eventual attack, it is unlikely that Iran will be prepared to make unilateral concessions.

...

Two years ago, Iran agreed to a Brazilian-Turkish fuel-swap proposal under which Iran could develop nuclear power without accumulating raw material for nuclear weapons. Last year, Russia put forth a plan imposing a number of restrictions on Iranian enrichment and facilitating more intrusive IAEA inspections. Neither proposal was supported by the United States, as the Obama administration's top priority was to intensify international pressure on Tehran. Now, given Iran's progress toward building the bomb, any new proposal should include an intrusive monitoring system with an early-warning mechanism inside Iran's nuclear establishment. Such a requirement would help prevent a breakout program, as Iran would recognize that evidence of such activities would lead to military strikes and additional severe economic sanctions. The agreement would also have to be accompanied with a list of clearly defined steps that Iran could take to achieve the lifting of sanctions.

 

Iran has repeatedly offered to host an intrusive inspection regime that would go beyond the IAEA's current program. Seyed Mousavian, a former senior Iranian negotiator, has suggested capping enrichment at five percent and agreeing not to store any excess enriched uranium on Iranian soil. In return, the United States and its allies would recognize Iran's sovereign right to enrichment technology and gradually lift sanctions. This appears to be a sensible way to move forward from the current crisis. However, for the past three years, the United States and Europe have stubbornly refused to seek a negotiated solution with Iran. The failed talks this spring and summer illustrated that when the West has nothing to offer, Iran withdraws.

 

Cooling down overheated U.S.-Iranian relations requires sound diplomacy, rather than a war of words. The Iraqi model, as outlined in the UN cease-fire resolution, contained sanctions linked to an initial inspection regime, followed by an ongoing monitoring arrangement in parallel with an assured lifting of the sanctions. To be effective, any sanctions regime must contain clear and reasonable steps toward the lifting of the sanctions. In Iran, such a program could prevent the emergence of a breakout nuclear capability. Perhaps, then, the world would avoid finding itself in another quagmire in the Middle East.

[Andrea75]

segnalo queto breve paper Le ambizioni nucleari iraniane

 

... a seguire una serie di articoli dalla stampa internazionale

 

U.S. and Iran Deny Plan for Nuclear Talks

 

Iran denies report of plans for nuclear talks with U.S.

 

U.S. Says It Will ‘Ratchet Up’ Sanctions Pressure on Iran

 

Ex-Mossad Chief: Dialogue With Iran Over Nukes is Essential

 

The Myth of “Surgical Strikes” on Iran

Modificato 22 Ottobre 2012 da Andrea75

[Andrea75]

Major powers examine long-shot options in Iran talks

 

A lesson in restraint: What China tells us about Iran

[Andrea75]

New Problem: How To Target Iran’s Nukes

[Andrea75]

The U.K. thinks a strike on Iran would be illegal, denies U.S. access to its bases

 

Britain rejects US request to use UK bases in nuclear standoff with Iran

 

Britain has rebuffed US pleas to use military bases in the UK to support the build-up of forces in the Gulf, citing secret legal advice which states that any pre-emptive strike on Iran could be in breach of international law.

 

... ed una mappa interattiva per vedere le alternative USA US military deployments overseas mapped

[-{-Legolas-}-]

Già un'altra volta il regno Unito aveva riufiutato agli USA di usare le loro basi aeree per effettuare operazioni di bombardamento, Andrea75 ti ricordi quando è stato l'ultima volta?

[Andrea75]

No, non ricordo. Proverò a cercare notizie in proposito.

 

Nel frattempo segnalo qualche articolo sulla questione nucleare

 

Iran filling nuclear bunker with centrifuges: diplomats

 

Iran Said to Nearly Finish Nuclear Enrichment Plant

 

Iran's Rapid Progress in Building Well-Equipped Plants

 

IAEA Board of Governors Calls on Iran to Cooperate with IAEA, But Tehran Continues to Balk

 

 

... e sullo spionaggio

 

Iran has pictures of restricted Israeli areas: Iran MP

 

Iranian official says Tehran has images of ‘forbidden’ Israeli bases from Hezbollah drone

Modificato 29 Ottobre 2012 da Andrea75

[Andrea75]

Why Iiran wants to attack the United States

[Andrea75]

Why would Israel bomb Sudan? Theories cite Iran, Hamas, even the U.S.

 

Here are a few theories, but to be clear, these are not mutually exclusive and it’s possible that none, one, or a combination of them, has some truth. It’s also possible that some of them merely provided added incentive to the attack, the primary motive of which may have simply been to destroy the munitions:

1) “Rehearsal” for “forthcoming” Israeli strike on Iran.

2) A warning to Iran.

3) Preparing for conflict with Iran and Hamas.

4) A message to America.

 

 

Sudan denies Iranian involvement in arms factory hit by explosion in Khartoum

 

inoltre segnalo

 

Why Israel Should Trade Its Nukes

 

Israel does not need its nuclear arsenal to remain the strongest power in the Middle East. It can make good use of the stockpile, however, by offering it up as a bargaining chip to end Iran's nuclear program.

 

 

Iran and the Bomb

 

A nuclear-armed Iran would not make the Middle East more secure, argues Colin Kahl; it would yield more terrorism and pose a risk of a nuclear exchange. Kenneth Waltz maintains that nuclear deterrence enhances stability, and if the price is more low-level conflict, so be it.

 

Iranian warships dock in Sudan in show of support

 

Two Iranian warships have docked in Sudan carrying "a message of support and friendship," Sudanese state media said.

The ships arrived in Port Sudan on Sunday and will stay until Wednesday, according to SUNA, the official Sudanese news agency.

The presence "clearly shows the solid support of political and diplomatic relationships between the Sudanese and Iranian navies," the agency quoted Sudanese army spokesman Savarmi Khaled Saad as saying Monday.

...

An Iranian flotilla that left Iranian waters in September included a navy helicopter carrier and a destroyer, IRNA reported.

Modificato 30 Ottobre 2012 da Andrea75

[Andrea75]

Segnalo questa iniziativa UE EU Non-Proliferation Consortium

 

ed un paper di commento L’Unione europea e la creazione di una zona libera da armi di distruzione di massa in Medio Oriente

 

 

.... inoltre L’Iran provoca Israele e arriva in Sudan con due navi da guerra

 

 

... e Iran pulls back from nuclear bomb goal: Israeli defense minister

 

Iran has drawn back from its ambitions to build a nuclear weapon, Israel's defense minister was quoted as saying on Tuesday, while warning that his country may still have to decide next year whether to launch a military strike against it.

 

Israeli Defense Chief Says Iran Postponed Nuclear Ambitions

 

The Iranian decision, Mr. Barak said, “allows contemplating delaying the moment of truth by 8 to 10 months.”

Asked why Iran would have decided on such a conversion, Mr. Barak said it might have taken Israeli and American warnings seriously, might have wished to delay a confrontation with Israel until after the American presidential elections, or might have been seeking to convince the agency of the sincerity of its peaceful intent.

Modificato 31 Ottobre 2012 da Andrea75

[Andrea75]

Iran warships leave Sudan after four-day stay

 

More hints of an opening for direct U.S.-Iran talks

 

The Iranian government has reportedly appointed one of its diplomats “to be the channel for all approaches from the Americans,” according to Laura Rozen of Al-Monitor. She also quotes a veteran U.S. diplomat with knowledge of the appointment as saying that he doesn’t think there are firm plans for direct U.S.-Iran talks.

[Andrea75]

Exclusive: PM on standby to send warplanes to Gulf as Iranian tensions rise

 

Britain is considering stationing warplanes in the Persian Gulf as the confrontation with Iran over its nuclear programme continues amid rising tension in the region, The Independent has learnt.

The possible deployment of the Eurofighter Typhoons follows talks with the United Arab Emirates to bolster the UK’s presence in the region at a time when Israel is threatening military strikes against Tehran and much of the Middle-East is in turbulence in the aftershock of the Arab Spring and Syria’s civil war.

The decision on whether to send the planes at such a volatile time will be made by David Cameron, after further talks with the rulers of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and an announcement is expected to be made in the near future.

The arrival of British aircraft is bound to fuel the Iranian sense of insecurity even if there are assurances that the move is not aimed at them. The Defence Secretary Philip Hammond yesterday said European nations must be prepared to “take a bigger role in relation to North Africa and the Middle East”.

...

The Ministry of Defence said in a statement: “The UK regularly deploys Typhoon to UAE as part of our routine exercise programme and to demonstrate our military commitment to UAE and the security of the wider region. We have a mutual interest with our GCC [Gulf] partners in ensuring peace and stability in the region, and exercises such as this allow us to practice working together.” The MoD added: “These deployments are not due to our concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme. As we continue to make clear, the Government does not believe military action against Iran is the right course of action at this time, although no option is off the table.”

However, The Independent has learnt from highly senior military and diplomatic sources that the Al Dhafra airbase, 20 miles south of Abu Dhabi, is being looked at as a possible station for the Typhoons. The base is in use by French Mirage fighter-bombers as well as the 380th Air Expeditionary Wing of the US Air Force with jets and Patriot missile batteries and well located for operations in the Gulf.

[TT-1 Pinto]

Da "Il Giornale" di ieri ....

 

Israele non aspetta più.

L'attacco all'Iran dopo il voto americano.

L'articolo di Dan Segre .... http://www.difesa.it/Sala_Stampa/rassegna_stampa_online/Pagine/PdfNavigator.aspx?d=01-11-2012&pdfIndex=31

[Andrea75]

Was the alleged attack on Sudan prelude to Iran

 

However, if Israeli jets did carry out the strike, it means it took place some 1,600 kilometers from Israel, nearly the same distance between central Israel and the uranium enrichment plants in Iran – one near the city of Kashan (“Natanz”) and the other near Qom (“Fordo”). Therefore, the attack, if it was carried out by Israel, also sent a strong message to Tehran.

 

 

e qui un reportage con numerose immagini satellitari Situation Report: Explosions in Khartoum, Sudan

[Andrea75]

Iran’s Currency Wars

 

The recent collapse in the value of Iran's currency symbolises Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's presidency: one of political and economic mismanagement. There is an economic imperative for the next president to end Iran's international isolation or the Islamic Republic will face even greater economic pain.

[Andrea75]

Segnalo questo paper made in Israel su War Game: The Hours following an Attack on Iran’s Nuclear Infrastructures

 

Lo sottolineo: si tratta di una ipotesi, pur verosimile, ma ipotesi. Ecco l'introduzione

The Scenario

After midnight on November 9, al-Jazeera reports that Israeli airplanes have attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities in three waves of attack. As reports multiply, Israel officially announces it has attacked Iran’s nuclear sites because it had no other choice. According to the scenario, Israel did not coordinate the attack with the United States in advance, and only informed the US once the planes were already en route to the Iranian targets. Initial assessments estimate that the Iranian nuclear program has been set back by nearly three years.

Following the successful attack, Iran decides to react with maximal force, launching missiles from within its borders and urging its proxies – Hizbollah, Hamas, and other radical elements – to attack Israel. Nonetheless, it is careful to avoid attacking American targets. Israel attempts to contain the attacks and works to attain a state of calm as rapidly as possible. The international community is paralyzed, largely because Russia tries to exploit the situation for its own strategic objectives. At the end of the first 48 hours, Iran continues to attack Israel, as do their proxies, albeit to a lesser extent. At this point in the simulation, the crisis does not seem to be close to a resolution.

 

... a seguire alcuni commenti Israeli War Game Does Not See Attack Of Iran Starting World War III

 

Iran and the Gulf Military Balance

Modificato 5 Novembre 2012 da Andrea75

[madmike]

[

... a seguire alcuni commenti Israeli War Game Does Not See Attack Of Iran Starting World War III

 

Iran and the Gulf Military Balance

 

Interessante, e a mio avviso ampiamente condivisibile, la valutazione del primo commento:

 

Basically their scenario is best-best-best-best-no-chances-of-happening-scenario.

It's not a real scenario, it's a propaganda scenario to make people support a war on Iran.

[Andrea75]

Having dispatched Romney, Obama faces Iran, Syria

 

Having defeated Republican Mitt Romney at home, Barack Obama has no shortage of adversaries to grapple with abroad, including the governments of Iran, Syria and possibly China.

The Democratic president's re-election ensures continuity in U.S. foreign policy but leaves open questions such as whether diplomacy can constrain Iran's nuclear program or whether Israel or the United States might resort to air strikes.

 

 

Iran to take part in talks on nuclear-free Middle East

 

Iran said on Tuesday it would go to a proposed international conference in December on creating a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East, but there was little hope of progress even if the meeting goes ahead given deep-rooted regional animosities.

Tehran has been embroiled in a long stand-off with world powers over allegations, which it denies, that it is seeking to develop the means to produce nuclear weapons.

No date has yet been set for the meeting in the Finnish capital later this year to discuss banning atomic arms and other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the volatile Middle East and there are doubts over whether it will take place.

Even if it does go ahead - Israel, believed to have the Middle East's only nuclear arsenal, has yet to say whether it will attend - Western diplomats expect little progress soon.

[Andrea75]

Iranian ministry suggests openness to nuclear talks

 

A sober analysis assessing the possible threat of a military confrontation over Iran’s nuclear program and highlighting the benefits of negotiations to avert a deeper crisis has been published by a surprising source: Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence.

The report first appeared on the ministry’s Web site Tuesday and has been republished by various Iranian media outlets, adding to growing speculation that new negotiations with the international bloc known as the P5+1, or even direct talks with the United States, may be on the horizon.

The Intelligence Ministry is viewed as a hawkish power center within Iran’s system but not a channel for expressing the Islamic republic’s foreign policy views. The findings in the report suggest that the ministry has a pragmatic understanding of the challenges the country faces, the cost it is paying for continuing uranium enrichment at current levels, the threat of Israeli aggression and, perhaps most important, a way out of the stalemate.

...

The report, titled “Reasons and Obstacles of a Military Attack by the Zionist Regime Against Iran,” also makes a clear distinction between positions on Iran’s nuclear program held by the Israeli government and the U.S. administration. It says President Obama “hopes to solve this issue peacefully and through diplomacy.” It goes on to say that Obama does not think Iran’s enrichment program, which Iran insists is solely for peaceful purposes, is an imminent threat and that, in addition to diplomacy, he thinks “severe sanctions” can help control the situation.

With Obama’s reelection Tuesday, there is guarded hope in Tehran and Washington that a solution agreeable to all parties in the nuclear standoff might finally be possible.

Across Iran’s political spectrum, the prospect of talks is being discussed more openly than ever before.

 

 

From Sudan to cyber, secret war with Iran heats up

 

From a suspected Israeli airstrike in Sudan to cyber warfare in the Gulf and a drone shot down over Israel, the largely hidden war between Iran and its foes seems heating up and spreading.

Despite months of speculation, most experts and governments believe the risk of a direct Israeli strike on Tehran's nuclear program stirring regional conflict has eased, at least for now. But all sides, it seems, are finding other ways to fight.

For the US and European powers , the main focus remains on oil export sanctions that are inflicting ever more damage on Iran's economy.

 

aggiungo che il Regno Unito ha programmato lo schieramento di uno squadrone di Thypoon negli EAU: tutto deciso da tempo - dicono - però intanto sono lì.